Lab for Economic Opportunities (LEO) reported RCT results for Padua, an intensive case management program for low-income adults, aimed at moving them permanently out of poverty. Quick take: High-quality RCT finds suggestive, but at best modest, effects on earnings, employment, etc over 2-5 year follow-up.
Program:
Per the study: Padua is "a holistic, individualized wrap-around service intervention [that] includes a detailed assessment, an individualized service plan, intensive case management administered by a two-person team [and] temporary financial assistance." Cost is $23k per person.
Study Design:
The study sample comprised 427 low-income adults in Tarrant County TX, randomly assigned to treatment (full Padua program) versus control (usual services).
Findings:
At the 2-year mark, the study survey found Padua increased earnings by 18% (vs a control average of $1149 per month) and employment by 6% points (vs control group's 63%). But neither effect was statistically significant, so these effects are best viewed as suggestive (could be due to chance).
Also, surveys are vulnerable to "social desirability bias" - i.e., treatment group members know the program's goals and may overstate their workforce success to show they’ve made good use of the assistance.
The study also measured workforce outcomes with state records, and found near-zero impact on earnings and a non-significant 5% point increase in employment over 4.5 years (and similar over 2 years). Such records avoid social desirability bias but don't count informal (e.g., gig) jobs, so may modestly understate employment/earnings for both treatment and control groups.
Finally, in the survey measures and state records, the study found no overall pattern of effects on other pre-specified main outcomes: debt, savings, household income, use of government assistance, or health.
Comment:
Based on careful review, I believe this was a well-conducted RCT with important but mostly disappointing findings: Despite the program's intensity and cost, it didn't discernably lift people out of poverty and toward self-sufficiency.