HHS/OPRE published an excellent summary of results of 10 RCTs of job training programs for low-income adults, funded under HHS’s “PACE” & “HPOG 1.0” initiatives. Quick take: High-quality RCTs find no earnings impacts for 9 programs & large impacts for 1 program.

Programs:

• The 10 programs that were tested represent a range of job training strategies within a "career pathways" framework (in which training is "organized as a series of manageable and well-articulated steps accompanied by strong supports and connections to employment").

Study Designs:

• The programs were evaluated in sizable RCTs, with samples ranging from 499 to 13,802 individuals per study. Earnings impacts were measured over 6 years after program entry.

Findings:

• The graphs above show the earnings gains for the treatment vs control group in each of the 10 programs. As you can see, 9 programs had no discernible impact on earnings.

• There was one clear success, however, which I've previously summarized: the Year Up program ("High-quality RCT with blockbuster results: long-term earnings gains of 30% ($8,000/year").

Comment:

• This pattern - 1 meaningful positive impact out of 10 - is not atypical: Unfortunately, many programs don't work. A similar pattern occurs in other fields such as medicine and business: When new treatments or strategies are tested in RCTs, only about 10-20% are found effective.

• All of which underscores the need to test many different approaches in order to identify truly effective programs (like Year Up), and then to focus government funds on scaling these exceptional programs so as to benefit many thousands.