Institute for Policy Research posted long-term RCT results for the Graduation program in Ethiopia, providing very poor households a productive asset (e.g. livestock) and training in its use. Quick take: High-quality RCT finds a sizable 18% gain in household consumption at the 3-year mark, fading somewhat to 9% at 7 years.

 

Program:

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• Per the study report, program participants received a one-off transfer of either sheep and goats, oxen, bees, or inventory for petty trade, plus technical training and coaching, and were given access to local bank accounts. The program's cost was approximately $4011 per household in US$.

 

Study Design:

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• The study sample comprised 925 households, randomly assigned via lottery to treatment (T) vs control (C). Based on careful review, this was a high-quality RCT (e.g., good baseline balance, negligible sample attrition).

 

Findings:

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• The study found a 18% gain in per-capita consumption three years after study entry, fading somewhat to a 9% gain in year 7. Both impacts were statistically significant. The impact on food security ("enough food every day?") was 72% T vs 64% C at 3 years, fading to 85% T vs 83% C (and no longer statistically significant) at 7 years.

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• These impacts are meaningful (as evidenced by the 3 year gain in food security), but the treatment and control groups both remained very poor - e.g., at the 3 year mark, annual per-capita consumption was just $666 T vs $563 C in US dollars. It's unknown whether total program benefits will exceed costs over time, as it depends on how long the impacts endure.

 

Comment:

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• Various RCTs of the Graduation program have found large impacts in some places (e.g., West Bengal, India; Afghanistan), modest in others (e.g., Ethiopia, described above), and null in Andhra Pradesh, India.

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• Overall, I think Graduation is a very promising program model, but more research is needed to identify the conditions and settings where it's most effective.